EARTH TO WARM FOUR DEGREES BY 2100

http://media.smh.com.au/news/environment-news/earth-to-warm-by-four-degrees-by-2100-5046003.html

CENTURIES OF CLIMATE-CHANGE INEVITABLE

This synopis was published today by Science magazine.

Climate Science

Forward into the Past

H. Jesse Smith

It has been well established that high concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ caused by anthropogenic emissions will persist for thousands of years after those emissions cease and that the consequences for climate will last even longer than that. Suggestions have been made that CO₂ could be removed from the atmosphere artificially in order to speed global climate recovery, but what can be expected from such a capture scheme? MacDougall uses a climate model of intermediate complexity, employing scenarios of CO₂removal that move from the more idealized schemes used in past studies toward more realistic ones, in order to continue refining our understanding of what would be the effects of such an undertaking. He finds that by assuming a moderate value of climate sensitivity and that CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere as fast as it was added once emissions cease, surface air temperatures like those of preindustrial times can be approached by the year 3000 CE in all but the most extreme emission scenarios. Other components of the climate system, such as mass of the polar ice sheets, and sea level, will take longer to recover, however. So, even if we dial back atmospheric CO₂concentrations by massive geoengineering, we will be living with the effects of fossil fuel burning for many hundreds of years, at the least.

Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5480 (2013).

NINETY COMPANIES HAVE WRECKED THE PLANET

About two-thirds of the damage that is causing climate-change has been caused by only ninety companies.

They should be taken to the Hague and tried for crimes against humanity. We tried the Nazis, found them guilty (a no-brainer) and hanged them. But they wiped out only 30 million people and hardly made a dent in the planet. Those companies will wipe out far more and have wrecked the planet.

BIG OIL ATTACKING ELECTRIC CARS

A happy owner of an electric car dug behind the byline of a fierce critic, and found--surprise, surprise--Big Oil's money.

MAJOR CITIES TO BE UNINHABITABLE

'Apocalypse Now: Unstoppable man-made climate change will become reality by the end of the decade and could make New York, London and Paris uninhabitable within 45 years. Research from the University of Hawaii claims that man-made global warming is now inevitable:
'The Earth is going to dangerously heat up over the next 50-years;
'The tropics will bear the brunt of the disastrous temperature increases of as much as seven-degrees-centigrade;
'Millions of people will be displaced, millions of species will be threatened with extinction;
'Major cities such as New York and London will fight to survive the rise in temperatures the likes of which humans have never experienced before.'

But the fools and liars who want to deny the incontrovertible truth that human beings have changed the global climate and are carrying on changing it as if nothing was happening, as this superb piece profoundly illustrates.

MANMADE CLIMATE-CHANGE CERTAINTY

Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real manmade threat as they are that cigarettes kill. They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy.

WORLD CLIMATE FOR JULY 2013

Global Climate Statistics from the US Government:  Highlights, July 2013

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2013 was the sixth highest on record, at 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F), marking the eighth warmest July on record. For the ocean, the July global sea surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the fifth warmest July on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–July period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), tying with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record.

Full report here.

MORE BAD NEWS ON CLIMATE-CHANGE

Our hotter, wetter, more violent future:
'Earth’s atmosphere seems to have found a way to get back at the human race. For almost three centuries, we humans have been filling the air with carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. Now, it turns out, the climate-change these emissions have wrought is turning people against one another.
'So says a review, published today, of 60 studies on how climate change helps spark conflict throughout the world. The researchers found a surprisingly close link between climate change and civil wars, riots, invasions and even personal violence such as murder, assault and rape.'
Original paper.

Climate-change happening ten times faster than at any time in the past 65 million years:
'The planet is undergoing one of the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker than any climate shift in the past 65 million years.'

MORE ON GLOBAL OVERHEATING TIMEBOMBS

The release of Arctic methane could cost the world $60 trillion:
'Researchers have warned of an "economic time-bomb" in the Arctic, following a ground-breaking analysis of the likely cost of methane emissions in the region. Economic modelling shows that the methane emissions caused by shrinking sea ice from just one area of the Arctic could come with a global price tag of 60 trillion dollars -- the size of the world economy in 2012.'

When temperatures rise tropical ecosystems pump out more carbon-dioxide:
'NASA scientists and an international team of researchers have found tropical ecosystems can generate significant carbon dioxide when temperatures rise, unlike ecosystems in other parts of the world.'

Antarctic permafrost is melting fast:
'For the first time, scientists have documented an acceleration in the melt rate of permafrost, or ground ice, in a section of Antarctica where the ice had been considered stable. The melt rates are comparable with the Arctic, where accelerated melting of permafrost has become a regularly recurring phenomenon, and the change could offer a preview of melting permafrost in other parts of a warming Antarctic continent.'

GLOBAL CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 2013

Global Climate Analysis for June 2013:
Prepared by the US Government's National Climatic Data Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Global Highlights
* The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
* The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10th warmest June on record.
* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

NATURAL ICEBERG A SERIOUS THREAT

720-square-kilometre iceberg breaks away in the Antarctic:
'On July 8, 2013, a huge area of the ice shelf broke away from the Pine Island glacier, the longest and fastest flowing glacier in the Antarctic, and is now floating in the Amundsen Sea in the form of a very large iceberg.'
'For the Western Antarctic ice shelf, an even faster flow of the Pine Island glacier would presumably have serious consequences. "The Western Antarctic land ice is on land which is deeper than sea level. Its "bed" tends towards the land. The danger therefore exists that these large ice masses will become unstable and will start to slide," says Angelika Humbert. If the entire West Antarctic ice shield were to flow into the Ocean, this would lead to a global rise in sea level of around 3.3 metres.'

2-DEGREE RISE IS NOT SAFE

It is false to say that a 2-degree rise in average global temperature is safe.

'The notion that we'll avoid serious damage to the world's climate if we limit the warming of the atmosphere to a 2-degree-Celsius rise in temperature is untrue, says Stanford climate scientist Chris Field.'

Full story on Stanford News.

TIMELAPSE SHOWS HUMAN CHANGES TO EARTH

The changing world--timelapse powered by Google:
'These Timelapse pictures tell the pretty and not-so-pretty story of a finite planet and how its residents are treating it — razing even as we build, destroying even as we preserve. It takes a certain amount of courage to look at the videos, but once you start, it’s impossible to look away.'

LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING IS NO ENOUGH

'So far, international climate targets have been restricted to limiting the increase in temperature. But if we are to stop the rising sea levels, ocean acidification and the loss of production from agriculture, CO2 emissions will have to fall even more sharply.'

Full story on ScienceDaily.

2001 TO 2010 SHOWS FASTER GLOBAL WARMING

The United Nations says that the first decade of this century shows an accelerated trend in global warming.

'UN climate experts say the first decade of the new millennium was an unprecedented era of climate extremes, with more countries than ever before seeing their temperature records broken. The World Meteorological Organization's analysis Wednesday says average land and ocean surface temperatures during 2001-2010 rose from the previous decade and were up almost a half-degree Celsius from the 1961-1990 global average.'

Full story at NewsDaily.

SEA-RISE OF UP TO 10M POSSIBLE

'Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned. Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate. Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.... both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.'

CLIMATE-CHANGE LIKE 4 ATOM BOMBS PER SEC

Climate-change equals four Hiroshima bombs per second:

'The planet has been building up temperatures at the rate of four Hiroshima bombs of heat every second, and it's all our fault, say climate scientists.

Hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy are just two examples of how extreme weather will intensify, Australia's Climate Action Summit has heard.'

NOAA-NCDC CLIMATE ANALYSIS MAY 2013

Global Climate Analysis for May 2013 - NOAA's Nationals Climatic Data Centre:

Highlights

* The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2013 tied with 1998 and 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.66°C (1.9°F)) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).

* The global land surface temperature was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F), also the third warmest May on record. For the ocean, the May global sea surface temperature was 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F), tying with 2003 and 2009 as the fifth warmest May on record.

* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the March–May period was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F), tying with 2004 as the eighth warmest such period on record.

* The March–May worldwide land surface temperature was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average, the 11th warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.45°C (0.81°F) above the 20th century average and tied with 2001 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–May period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.1°C (55.5°F), the eighth warmest such period on record. 

CAVES POINT TO THAWING OF SIBERIA

Evidence from Siberian caves suggests that a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius could see permanently-frozen ground thaw over a large area of Siberia, threatening release of carbon from soils, and damage to natural and human environments. A thaw in Siberia's permafrost (ground frozen throughout the year) could release over 1000 giga-tonnes of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, potentially enhancing global warming.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

ARCTIC PERMAFROST MELTING UNSTOPPABLY

The worst effect of manmade climate-change has begun and is unstoppable. The world is on the cusp of a 'tipping-point into dangerous climate change, according to new data gathered by scientists measuring methane leaking from the Arctic permafrost and a report presented to the United Nations on Tuesday.

'The permafrost carbon feedback is irreversible on human time scales,' says the report, Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. 'Overall, these observations indicate that large-scale thawing of permafrost may already have started.'

While countries the size of Australia tally up their greenhouse emissions in hundreds of millions of tonnes, the Arctic's stores are measured in tens of billions.

'Lift your eyes to the heavens, look at the earth beneath: the heavens grow murky as smoke; the earth wears into tatters like a garment, and those who live on it die like maggots; but the deliverance of the LORD God is everlasting and his saving power shall never wane.' Isaiah 51:6 (New English Bible).

Full story here.

WHY SEAS ARE RISING FASTER THAN FORECAST

Estimates of the rate at which the sea will rise may be too low, because it is rising faster than expected from global warming. The last official IPCC report in 2007 projected a global sea level rise between 0.2 and 0.5 metres by 2100, but current measurements meet or exceed the high end of that range and suggest a rise of one metre or more by the end of the century.

'What's missing from the models used to forecast sea-level rise are critical feedbacks that speed everything up,' says Bill Hay, a geologist at the University of Colorado.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

This blog has said all along that the seas will be at least a metre and half higher in 2100. Now science is beginning to agree.

CLIMATE-CHANGE OZONE AND SKIN-CANCER

For decades, scientists have known that the effects of global climate change could have a potentially devastating impact across the globe, but Harvard researchers say there is now evidence that it may also have a dramatic impact on public health, reports ScienceDaily.

In a paper published in the July 27 issue of <i>Science,</i> a team of researchers led by James G. Anderson, the Philip S. Weld Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, warn that a newly-discovered connection between climate change and depletion of the ozone layer over the U.S. could allow more damaging ultraviolet (UV) radiation to reach the Earth's surface, leading to increased incidence of skin cancer, because of the effects of the lightning generated by powerful storms on the chlorine and bromine high in the atmosphere, which in turn reduces the level of ozone.

SATELLITES SEE UNPRECEDENTED MELTING IN GREENLAND

In early-to-mid July 2012 satellites saw unprecedented melting in Greenland--reaching up to 97% of the surface.

Full story on this NASA site.

PROOF THAT CLIMATE AND CO2 CLOSELY LINKED

New research from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen indicates that, contrary to previous opinion, the rise in temperature and the rise in the atmospheric CO2 follow each other closely in terms of time. The results have been published in the scientific journal, Climate of the Past, reports ScienceDaily.

'What we are observing in the present day is the mankind has caused the CO2 content in the atmosphere to rise as much in just 150 years as it rose over 8,000 years during the transition from the last ice age to the current interglacial period and that can bring the Earth's climate out of balance,'says Sune Olander Rasmussen, Associate Professor and centre coordinator at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute.

The research, which was carried out in collaboration with researchers from the University of Tasmania in Australia, is based on measurements of ice cores from five boreholes through the ice sheet in Antarctica. The ice-sheet is formed by snow that doesn't melt, but remains year after year and is gradually compressed into kilometers thick ice. During the compression, air is trapped between the snowflakes and as a result the ice contains tiny samples of ancient atmospheres. The composition of the ice also shows what the temperature was when the snow fell, so it is an archive of past climate and atmospheric composition.

NOAA'S GLOBAL REPORT FOR 2011

Worldwide, 2011 was the coolest year on record since 2008, yet temperatures remained above the 30-year average, according to the 2011 State of the Climate report released online on July 10, 2012 by NOAA. The peer-reviewed report, issued in coordination with the American Meteorological Society (AMS), was compiled by 378 scientists from 48 countries around the world. It was reported on ScienceDaily.

The Arctic continued to show more rapid changes than the rest of the planet. Sea-ice shrank to its second smallest 'summer minimum' extent on record during 2011, as older ice (four to five years old) reached a new record minimum at more than 80% below average. Overall, glaciers around the world continued to lose mass. Loss from Canadian Arctic glaciers and ice caps were the greatest since measurements began in 2002.

The report used forty-three climate-indicators to track and identify changes and overall trends to the global climate system, including greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, cloud cover, sea-surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean salinity, sea-ice extent and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets.

Four independent datasets show 2011 among the 15 warmest since records began in the late 19th century, with annually-averaged temperatures above the 1981-2010 average. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. On the opposite pole, the South Pole station recorded its all-time highest temperature of -22.1°C (9.9°F) on December 25, breaking the previous record by over 1 degree Celsius (over 2 degrees Fahrenheit).

Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise. Carbon dioxide steadily increased in 2011 and the yearly global average exceeded 390 parts per million (ppm) for the first time since instrumental records began.

The extent of Arctic sea-ice was below average for all of 2011 and has been since June 2001, a span of 127 consecutive months.

The ozone-level over the Arctic was the lowest since records began in 1979.

Even with La Niña conditions occurring during most of the year, the 2011 global sea-surface temperature was among the twelve highest years on record. Ocean heat content, measured from the surface to 700 metres deep (2,300 feet), continued to rise since records began in 1993 and was a record high.

La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now twenty times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now sixty-two times more likely.

NASA VIDEO SHOWS THE WORLD WARMING

This brilliant video from NASA  shows the change in temperature across the globe from 1880 to 2011. The colours show the amount of deviation from the 1951-1980 average. The animation clearly shows the warming trend, particularly since the mid-1970s, and the differences in different parts of the world so you can see how your part of the world has changed. 2011 was the ninth warmest year since 1880.

EXPECT THE SEA TO RISE 1.5 TO 4M

Sea-levels round the world can be expected to rise by several metres in coming centuries, if global warming carries on. Even if it is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, the global mean could continue to rise to 1.5-4m above present levels by 2300, with the best estimate being 2.7m, says a study just published in <i>Nature Climate Change.</i>

Reductions in emissions that allow warming to drop below 1.5 degrees Celsius could limit the rise strongly.


Full report in  ScienceDaily.

400PPM, TIPPING-POINT NEAR, ARCTIC EFFECT

The world recently passed the point where carbon-dioxide emissions have raised the level of that gas in the atmosphere to 400 parts per million.

By no coincidence a group of scientists around the world is warning that population growth, widespread destruction of natural ecosystems, and climate-change may be driving Earth toward an irreversible change in the biosphere, a global tipping-point that would have destructive consequences unless we do something.

'It really will be a new world, biologically, at that point,' warns Anthony Barnosky, professor of integrative biology at the University of California, Berkeley, and lead author of a review paper appearing in the June 7 issue of the journal <i>Nature.</i> 'The data suggests that there will be a reduction in biodiversity and severe impacts on much of what we depend on to sustain our quality of life, including, for example, fisheries, agriculture, forest products and clean water. This could happen within just a few generations.'

Full story onScienceDaily.

America's winters have already been tipped into a new era. The dramatic melt-off of Arctic sea-ice due to climate-change is hitting closer to home than millions of Americans might think, because melting Arctic sea ice can trigger a domino effect that leads to greater odds of severe winter weather outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere's middle latitudes -- such as the 'Snowmageddon' storm that hamstrung Washington, D.C. in February 2010.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

And Arctic tundra is being replaced by trees. In just a few decades shrubs have turned into trees as a result of the warming Arctic climate, creating patches of forest which, if replicated across the tundra, would significantly accelerate global warming.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

DEEP SUPER-DENSE SEAWATER VANISHING?

A layer the densest seawater in the world, deep in the Antarctic's Southern Ocean, is getting thinner, with as-yet-unknown consequences for the global climate. Scientists say the change is being driven by climate-change, but more study is needed to find out what is happening, why, and what the implications will be.

Transcript of the TV story here.

CO2 TO WARMING LINK IDENTIFIED

Many scientists have long suspected that rising levels of carbon-dioxide and the global warming that ended the last Ice Age were somehow linked, but establishing a clear cause-and-effect relationship between CO2 and global warming from the geologic record has remained difficult.

A new study, funded by the National Science Foundation and published in the journal Nature, identifies that relationship and provides compelling evidence that rising CO2 caused much of the global warming.

'CO2 was a big part of bringing the world out of the last Ice Age," says the lead author, Jeremy Shakun, 'and it took about 10,000 years to do it. Now CO2 levels are rising again, but this time an equivalent increase in CO2 has occurred in only about 200 years, and there are clear signs that the planet is already beginning to respond.'

The question now, say the researchers, is how carbon-dioxide generated by humans will affect the planet when there is no ice-age.


Full story on ScienceDaily

1981 CLIMATE PREDICTIONS SHOWN ACCURATE

Actually the worst-case temperatures they predicted 30 years ago were a bit lower than what we now getting, Which underlines the fact that the scientists are right and the liars and deniers are dead wrong.

Full story and graphs at The Register.

RISE IN SEA-LEVEL MORE ACCURATELY

A new study shows that the collapse of an ice sheet in Antarctica up to 14,650 years ago may have caused sea levels to rise between 14 and 18 metres, data which could help make more accurate climate-change predictions.

The melting of polar ice could contribute to long-term sea level rise, threatening the lives of millions, scientists say. Sea levels have increased on average about 18 centimetres since 1900 and rapid global warming will accelerate the increase, putting coastlines at risk and forcing low-lying cities to build costly sea defences.

A rise of 2 metres by 2100 is predicted.

Full report on NewsDaily

KING COAL IS A DIRTY OLD SOUL

Even in so-called 'clean green New Zealand' the dirty old man, King Coal, wants to keep on wrecking the planet.

Why let that get in the way of making a very grubby dollar?

Full report here.

EARTH WARMING FASTER THAN EXPECTED

By 2050, global average temperature could be between 1.4°C and 3°C warmer than it was just a couple of decades ago, according to a new British study that seeks to address the largest sources of uncertainty in current climate models. That's substantially higher than estimates produced by other climate analyses, suggesting that Earth's climate could warm much more quickly than previously thought.

Full story at Science Magazine

OCEANS TO BE 20 METRES HIGHER

Even if humankind manages to limit global warming to 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommends, future generations will have to deal with sea levels 12 to 22 meters (40 to 70 feet) higher than at present, according to research published in the journal Geology and reported in ScienceDaily

ACIDIFICATION OF OCEANS UNPRECEDENTED?

The world's oceans may be turning acidic faster today from human carbon emissions than they did during four major extinctions in the last 300 million years, when natural pulses of carbon sent global temperatures soaring, says a new study in Science. The study is the first of its kind to survey the geologic record for evidence of ocean acidification over this vast time period.

If industrial carbon emissions continue at the current pace, we may lose organisms we care about -- coral reefs, oysters, salmon...

Full story on ScienceDaily

FAKE CLIMATE-CHANGE SCEPTICS IGNORE FACTS

Damn the scientific truth, full ahead with our spin, is in effect the catch-cry of those who deny that we messing up the planet. Let lies reign!

Full story in the Montreal Gazette

COAL THE BIGGEST FOSSIL BADDIE

Burn all the coal and the global average temperature will be 15 degrees higher. Burn all the gas and oil and it will make a significant difference, but is nowhere near as damaging as coal. The message: stop using fossils ASAP.

Full story in the Globe and Mail

MORE EXTREME SUMMERS IN THE US NOW

Extreme summer temperatures are already occurring more frequently in the United States, and will become normal by mid-century if the world continues on a business as usual schedule of emitting greenhouse gases, says a study led by Phil Duffy of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It showed that previously rare high summertime (June, July and August) temperatures are already occurring more frequently in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States.

'The observed increase in the frequency of previously rare summertime-average temperatures is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability, said Duffy. 'It is extremely unlikely that the observed increase has happened through chance alone.'

The team also modelled the period 2035-2064.

'What was historically a one in 20-year occurrence will occur with at least a 70 percent chance every year,' said Duffy 'This work shows an example of how climate change can affect weather extremes, as well as averages.'

Full report on ScienceDaily

CLIMATE-CHANGE MAKES 100-YEAR FLOODS EVERY 3-20 YEARS?

When Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States in August 2011 it generated storm-surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested that Irene was a '100-year event', a storm that only comes only once a century.
 
But researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate-change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every 3 to 20 years.

The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, and also found that today’s '500-year floods' could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years.

They published their results in the current issue of Nature Climate Change.

Reported on PhysOrg.

ARCTIC ALREADY AT DANGEROUS CLIMATE-CHANGE

Two decades after the United Nations established the Framework Convention on Climate Change to 'prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,' the Arctic shows the first signs of a dangerous climate-change, says a team of researchers in an article published recently in iNature Climate Change.

They say the Arctic is already suffering some of the effects that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), correspond with a 'dangerous climate change.' The rate of climatic warming now exceeds the rate of natural adaptation in arctic ecosystems.

Full report in ScienceDaily.

NASA PROVES MAN NOT SUN IS WARMING EARTH

A study by NASA reported in ScienceDaily, shows that even during the unusually low period of solar activity between 2005 and 2010 the planet still absorbed more energy than it sent back into space--by 0.58 watts per square metre.

The imbalance of 0.58 watts per square metre is more than twice the reduction in energy from the sun during periods of reduced activity, which is 0.25 watts per square metre.

NASA says that is unequivocal evidence that human activity, not solar variance, is the dominant driver of global warming.

HUGE ARCTIC POOL COULD COOL EUROPE

A huge pool of fresh water in the Arctic Ocean is expanding and could lower the temperature of Europe by causing an ocean current to slow down, say scientists from University College London and Britain's National Oceanography Centre.

Using satellites to measure sea surface height from 1995 to 2010, they found that the western Arctic's sea surface has risen by about 15 cms since 2002. The volume of fresh water has increased by at least 8,000 cubic km, or about 10 percent of all the fresh water in the Arctic Ocean. The fresh water comes from melting ice and river run-off.

If the wind changes direction, which happened between the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the pool of fresh water could spill out into the rest of the Arctic Ocean and even into the north Atlantic Ocean, which could cool Europe by slowing down an ocean current coming from the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe relatively mild compared with countries at similar latitudes.

Full report in NewsDaily.

DAYLIGHT-SAVING CAUSES BRAIN-DAMAGE?

This report on <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120110140225.htm">ScienceDaily</a> on research that shows neurological damage is caused by messing about with biological clocks should give pause to those who love 'daylight-saving.' Russia has already dumped it because of the known effects on health, including increases in the incidence of heart-attacks in the weeks immediately after the clocks are changed.

EVIL STATISTIC

From page 1330, volume 334 of Science magazine:

9.1 billion tons. Total global carbon-emissions in 2010, an all-time high, up from 8.6 billion tons in 2009, according to the Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee.

EARTHQUAKES LINKED TO TROPICAL CYCLONES

A groundbreaking study led by University of Miami (UM) scientist Shimon Wdowinski shows that earthquakes, including the recent 2010 ones in Haiti and Taiwan, may be triggered by tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons).

'Very wet rain events are the trigger,' says Wdowinski, associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics at the UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. 'The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults.'

Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analyzed data from quakes magnitude-6 and above in Taiwan and Haiti and found a strong temporal relationship between the two natural hazards, where large earthquakes occurred within four years after a very wet tropical cyclone season.

Which means that because global overheating will increase the number of tropical cyclones, bringing more heavy rain, we can also expect an increase in the number of significant earthquakes.

Full report in <a href="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/111208121016.htm">ScienceDaily.</a>

ESTARFUTURE ADDS AMAZON R&D SUPPLIES

It is fitting that EStarFuture Corporation, which has such a strong emphasis on R&D, has added to its repertoire by becoming a portal for SmallParts, a division of Amazon, 'the hardware store for researchers and developers', which stocks 200,000 items for R&Ders, including laboratory and scientific supplies, metalworking tools, measurement and inspection tools, raw materials, fasteners, tubing, power-transmission products, etc., etc. A vast range. The hundreds of brands feature a host of top names, such as 3M, De Walt, Rockwell...

As Edison said, invention is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration. In other words R&D needs tools and materials to turn ideas into reality. Small Parts is an outlet to fulfil that need.

Click here for EStarFuture's portal to Small Parts.

ESTARFUTURE INVADED BY DOVES

As this post by our CEO shows, the 3475-square-metre property that is EStarFuture's headquarters (shared with the CEO) has been invaded by doves.

It a very fitting juxtaposition: white, glorious doves and a company that wants us to be living at peace with the planet.

Invaded by doves, blessed by doves, surrounded by doves, accompanied by doves. Would that every company had such companions and their daily inspiration!

GREENLAND'S BEDROCK RISING

ScienceDaily reports that an unusually hot melting-season in 2010 accelerated ice loss in southern Greenland by 100 billion tons. Fifty GPS stations planted along the coast to measure the bedrock's natural response to the ever-diminishing weight of ice above it, showed that large portions of the island's bedrock responded by rising another 6mm (0.25 of an inch).

The bedrock rises 15mm a year, but the temperature spike in 2010 lifted it more in only five months--as much as 20mm in some places (0.79 of an inch).

TUNA ON THE EDGE OF SUSTAINABILITY

Tuna stocks have declined 60% since 1954, reports Science, and in some areas more than 90%.

CLIMATE INSANITY ON STEROIDS

How much stupider can we humans get? We are wrecking the only planet we can live on in the entire universe, we have been given that message over and over and over again, we have been told very plainly how we are doing it, we have been told that we must to stop pumping carbon-dioxide into the atmosphere, yet we persist in making things worse, led by prats who we are too stupid to vote out of office because we actually like wrecking our home and don't want to pay a cent to stop it or fix the mess.

So last year we actually increased the amount of CO2 by 5.9%. Nearly six percent more! That is arrant, arrogant insanity. We have added 50% in the last 20 years. The combustion of coal accounts for more than half of the growth.

The New York Times adds its thunder to the insane litany.

An epsilion-semi-moronic, brain-damaged, frontally-lobotomised earthworm could do better. And we think of ourselves as the most intelligent life-form...

We are like the lemmings in the cartoon. Blindly plunging over the cliff, and the 'best' thing any can think of is to behave like happy sky-divers.

WMO RANKS 2011 ONE OF THE WARMEST

<a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/29/idINIndia-60792420111129">Reuters says</a> a report by the UN's World Meteorological Organisation ranks 2011 as one of the warmest years on record.

The WMO says global temperatures in 2011 are at the moment the tenth highest on record--higher than any previous year with a La Nina event, despite the fact that it has a relative cooling influence.

It says that this year the global climate was influenced heavily by the strong La Nina, a natural phenomenon usually linked to extreme weather in Asia-Pacific, South America and Africa, which developed in the tropical Pacific in the second half of 2010 and continued till May 2011. One of the strongest such events in 60 years, it was closely associated with the drought in east Africa, islands in the central equatorial Pacific and the United States, as well as severe flooding in other parts of the world.

The WMO says the warmest 13 years of average global temperatures have occurred in the 15 years since 1997. That has contributed to extreme weather conditions that increase the intensity of droughts and heavy precipitation across the world. The extent of Arctic sea ice in 2011 was the second lowest on record, and its volume was the lowest.

It says the build-up of greenhouse gases puts the world at a tipping-point of irreversible changes in ecosystems.

CLIMATE THREAT FROM HFCs

<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15818659">The BBC reports</a> on growing concerns that ozone-friendly HFCs are not friendly to climate-change, because the average global warming potential of the present mix of HFCs is about 1600--so a kilogram of HFC has about 1600 times the effect on global warming as a kilogram of carbon dioxide.

The HFCs: A Critical Link in Protecting Climate and the Ozone Layer, a report produced by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), projected that the global warming potential of HFCs in 2050 could be comparable with present emissions from the global transport sector.

HOTTEST OCTOBER FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LAND

The monthly figures prepared by the American government show that October 2011 was much warmer than normal compared with previous Octobers.

On average, land areas across the Northern Hemisphere—where the majority of the Earth's land mass is located—were the warmest on record for the month, at 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average. The warmth was especially pronounced across Alaska, Canada, Mongolia, and most of Russia and Europe.

According to the UK Met Office, the United Kingdom marked its warmest October since 2006 and eighth warmest in the last 100 years, at 2.0°C (3.6°F) above the 1971–2000 average.

Norway also reported its eighth warmest October, at 1.8°C (2.6°F) above normal, with records dating back to 1900

The dot map from page linked to above shows much of central and northern Russia with average temperatures more than 5°C (9°F) above average.

We are told we must keep the global increase within 2°C if life on Earth is not to become rather nasty. Our chances of doing that are zilch.

AIR-POLLUTION WORSENS DROUGHT AND FLOODING

ScienceDaily reports research showing that increases in air pollution and other particulate matter in the atmosphere can strongly affect cloud development in ways that reduce precipitation in dry regions or seasons, while increasing rain, snowfall and the intensity of severe storms in wet regions or seasons.

The study by a University of Maryland-led team of researchers provides the first clear evidence of how aerosols--soot, dust and other small particles in the atmosphere--can affect weather and climate; and the findings have important implications for the availability, management and use of water resources in regions across the United States and around the world, say the researchers and other scientists.

The study found that under very dirty conditions, the mean cloud height of deep convective clouds is more than twice the mean height under crystal-clean air.

'The probability of heavy rain is virtually doubled from clean to dirty conditions, while the chance of light rain is reduced by 50 percent,' says Maryland's Li, who is also affiliated with Beijing Normal University.

AMERICA USED MORE ENERGY IN 2010

ScienceDaily reports that American energy use went back up in 2010 compared to 2009, when consumption was at a 12-year low. The United States used more fossil fuels in 2010 than in 2009, while renewable electricity remained approximately constant, with an increase in wind power offset by a modest decline in hydroelectricity. There also was a significant increase in biomass consumption, according to the most recent energy flow charts released by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Though carbon emissions in 2010 were higher than they were in 2009, Americans' carbon footprint has decreased over the past few years. The U.S. emitted 5,632 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2010, up from 5,428 in 2009, but down from the all time high of 6,022 in 2007. The decrease is due primarily to reduced energy consumption, aided by a shift from coal to natural gas in the electric sector and adoption of renewable energy resources

ANNUAL GREENHOUSE-GAS INDEX RISING

NOAA's updated Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which measures the direct climate influence of many greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, shows a continued steady upward trend, reports ScienceDaily.


The AGGI reached 1.29 in 2010, which means that the combined heating effect of long-lived greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities has increased 29 percent since 1990. That is up from 1.27% in 2009.

SCEPTIC'S DATA CONFIRMS CLIMATE-CHANGE

A US physicist who has been critical of climate change data says his own research has convinced him that global warming is real in this ABC interview.

Professor Richard Muller says that to his amazement his results correlate with previously published results from other teams that used both inaccurate temperature gauges and faulty weather stations. He says his research shows the earth's surface temperature has risen by 0.9 degrees Celsius since the 1950s.

EXTREME MELTING OF GREENLAND CAN SELF-AMPLIFY

The Greenland icesheet can experience extreme melting even when temperatures do not hit record highs, according to a new analysis by Dr. Marco Tedesco, assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at The City College of New York. His findings suggest that glaciers can undergo a self-amplifying cycle of melting and warming that would be hard to stop.

'We are finding that even if you don't have record-breaking highs, as long as warm temperatures persist you can get record-breaking melting because of positive feedback mechanisms,' said Professor Tedesco, who directs CCNY's Cryospheric Processes Laboratory and also serves on CUNY Graduate Centre doctoral faculty.

Full report on ScienceDaily.

STILL A BIG OZONE HOLE OVER SOUTH POLE

The Antarctic ozone hole, which yawns wide every Southern Hemisphere spring, reached its annual peak on September 12, stretching 26.03 million square kilometres (10.05 million square miles), the ninth largest on record. Above the South Pole, the ozone hole reached its deepest point of the season on October 9 when total ozone readings dropped to 102 Dobson units, tied for the 10th lowest in the 26-year record, reports ScienceDaily.

NEW STUDY GAZUMPS CLIMATE-CHANGE SCEPTICS

Global warming is real says a major study released on October the 20th. Despite issues raised by climate-change sCeptics, the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study found reliable evidence of a rise in the average global land temperature of approximately 1°C since the mid-1950s, reports ScienceDaily.

Click here for more data from the Berkley Earth study.

SEA WILL RISE FOR 500 YEARS?

Researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute are part of a team that has calculated the long-term outlook for rising sea-levels in relation to the emission of greenhouse gases and pollution of the atmosphere using climate models, reports ScienceDaily.

In the pessimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing, and the sea rises 1.1 metres by the year 2100 and 5.5 metres by 2500.

Even in the most optimistic scenario, which requires extremely dramatic climate-change goals, major technological advances and strong international co-operation to stop emitting greenhouse gases and polluting the atmosphere, the sea would rise 60cm by 2100 and 1.8 metres by 2500.

The two more realistic scenarios, based on stablising emissions and pollution, show a sea-level rise of about 75cm by the year 2100 and 2 metres by 2500.

RECORD OZONE LOSS OVER THE ARTIC

The loss of ozone over the Arctic this year was so severe that for the first time it could be called an 'ozone hole' like the Antarctic one. The study, published in Nature, is reported on the the BBC's website.

About 20km above the ground 80% of the ozone was lost.

This is the report in ScienceDaily.

MANMADE AEROSOLS MESSING UP THE MONSOON

This research reported in Science blames human activity for the negative change in the South Asian summer monsoon.

Abstract: 'Observations show that South Asia underwent a widespread summertime drying during the second half of the 20th century, but it is unclear whether this trend was due to natural variations or human activities. We used a series of climate-model experiments to investigate the South Asian monsoon response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. We find that the observed precipitation decrease can be attributed mainly to human-influenced aerosol emissions. The drying is a robust outcome of a slowdown of the tropical meridional overturning circulation, which compensates for the aerosol-induced energy imbalance between the northern and southern hemispheres. These results provide compelling evidence of the prominent role of aerosols in shaping regional climate change over South Asia.'

CLIMATE-CHANGE ROCKS EVEREST?

Scientists and observers are concerned that climate-change will ultimately turn even Everest, the world's highest peak, into a rock-climb. One climber said that he was able to scale it without crampons there was so much bare rock.

Full story here.>/a>

ELECTRIC CARS SLASH SOLAR-CELL PAYBACK TIME

BusinessGreen reports on figures released by British Gas which show that owners of electric cars who charge them from their own installations of solar cells slash the payback time for the installation to less than five years.

The figures are based on a 2.52kWp system at the home of actor and TV presenter Robert Llewellyn, who uses the panels to charge his Nissan Leaf.

WHY GLOBAL OVER-HEATING RISES UNEVENLY

These stories, at TG Daily and LiveScience report a study that explains why the inexorable rise in the average global temperature is proceeding in fits and starts. The deep oceans store excess heat temporarily, for as long as a decade.

Satellites show that the discrepancy between heat coming in and being reflected back into space is growing, so the excess heat must have been going somewhere. Now we know where.

SMALLEST NORTH POLE IN 8000 YEARS

A report in the Guardian newspaper shows that the extent of Arctic sea-ice is the smallest it has been since satellite observations began in 1972, and is almost certainly the smallest it has been for at least 8000 years.

If current trends continue, a largely ice-free Arctic in the summer months is likely within 30 years. That is up to 40 years earlier than anticipated in the last assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

CLIMATE-CHANGE THREATENS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Science magazine (published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science) has published a study of the global production of the four largest agricultural commodities over the last 30 years: maize, wheat, soybean and rice. Together they account for about 75% of the calories consumed by humans, directly or indirectly.

The study found that maize and wheat have been negatively affected by the rise in global temperatures; rice and soybean have not been affected. Maize production declined 3.8%, wheat 5.5%. The authors conclude that 'climate-changes are already exerting a considerable drag on yield growth', which translates into substantial rises in prices.

Full study here.

CUT THE SOOT TO SLOW WARMING

ScienceDaily reports that a new study of dust-like particles of soot in the air--now emerging as the second most important, but previously overlooked, factor in global warming--provides fresh evidence that reducing soot emissions from diesel engines and other sources could slow melting of sea ice in the Arctic faster and more economically than any other quick fix, a scientist reported in Denver, Colorado on August 31, 2011.

In a presentation at the 242nd National Meeting & Exposition of the American Chemical Society (ACS), Mark Z. Jacobson, Ph.D., cited concerns that continued melting of sea ice above the Arctic Circle will be a tipping-point for Earth's climate, a point of no return. That's because the ice, which reflects sunlight and heat back into space, would give way to darker water that absorbs heat and exacerbates warming. And there is no known way to make the sea refreeze in the short term.

Jacobson's calculations indicate that controlling soot could reduce warming above parts of the Arctic Circle by almost 3 degrees Fahrenheit within 15 years. That would virtually erase all of the warming that has occurred in the Arctic during the last 100 years.

'No other measure could have such an immediate effect,' said Jacobson, who is with Stanford University. 'Soot emissions are second only to carbon-dioxide in promoting global warming, but its effects have been underestimated in previous climate models. Consequently, soot's effect on climate change has not been adequately addressed in national and international global warming legislation. Soot emissions account for about 17 percent of global warming, more than greenhouse gases like methane. Soot's contribution, however, could be reduced by 90 percent in 5-10 years with aggressive national and international policies.'

SIMPLE CATALYST SPLITS WATER IN SUNLIGHT

Using computational science researchers at the universities of Kentucky and Louisville have found a simple new catalyst that splits water in sunlight, thus opening another carbon-free door to the hydrogen age.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

CLIMATE-CHANGE MAY WIPE OUT A THIRD OF SPECIES

If global warming continues as expected, it is estimated that almost a third of all flora and fauna species worldwide could become extinct. Scientists from the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum, BiK-F) and the SENCKENBERG Gesellschaft für Naturkunde discovered that the proportion of actual biodiversity loss should be revised upwards: by 2080, more than 80% of genetic diversity within species may disappear in certain groups of organisms. The study is the first world-wide to quantify the loss of biological diversity on the basis of genetic diversity.

Full story at ScienceDaily.

KEY GREENLAND GLACIER MELTING FASTER

A key glacier in Greenland is melting faster than previously expected, according to findings by a team of academics that included Dr Edward Hanna from University of Sheffield's Deaprtment of Geography, Dr Sebastian Mernild from the Los Alamos Laboratory, USA, and Professor Niels Tvis Knudsen from the University of Aarhus, Denmark. The team´s new findings present crucial insight into the effects of climate change.

The researchers found that Greenland's longest-observed glacier, Mittivakkat Glacier, made two consecutive record losses in mass observations for 2010 and 2011.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

IRON TO REPLACE PLATINUM IN FUEL-CELLS

A research-team at INRS have now built on their pioneering achievement--the first high-performance iron-based catalyst for fuel-cells. They have developed a new and improved iron-based catalyst that generates even more electric power. Previously, only platinum-based catalysts could produce similar performance.

The team, led by Professor Jean-Pol Dodelet, bolsters the prospect of iron-based catalysts replacing platinum ones. Platinum is rare and very costly; iron is the second most abundant metal on earth and is inexpensive.

'Thanks to this breakthrough we are nearing the day when we will be able to drive electric-electric hybrid vehicles--i.e. battery and fuel-cell powered--which can potentially free us from our current dependence on oil to power our cars,' said Professor Dodelet.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

In the EStarCar the need for the so-called 'electric-electric hybrid' was recognised many years ago--right from the start. That is why it has multiple sources of power, centred on a power-train made up of a fuel-cell, a lithium-polymer battery array and an ultracapacitor array. It also has solar cells in the roof. Its sources of power, both primary (such as the fuel-cell), and secondary, such as the ultracapacitors and regenerative braking, at present total more than a dozen.

'Electric-electric hybrid'! What a silly term! Why not keep things simple and call it an electric car? Otherwise every time another source of power is added we will need to add another '-electric' to the string. Under that silly regime the EStarCar would have to be called 'an electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric-electric hybrid'. NO. It is an electric car. An advanced electric car, yes, but an electric car.

SMALL AMOUNT OF WARMING COLLAPSES ICE-SHELVES

An analysis of prehistoric 'Heinrich events' that happened many thousands of years ago, creating mass discharges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean, make it clear that very small amounts of subsurface warming of water can trigger a rapid collapse of ice-shelves. The findings provide historical evidence that warming of water by 3-4 degrees was enough to trigger these huge, episodic discharges of ice from the Laurentide Ice Sheet in what is now Canada, and raise serious concerns about Antarctic ice sheets.

Full report on ScienceDaily.

TUNDRA FIRES COULD ACCELERATE GLOBAL WARMING

After a 10,000-year absence, wildfires have returned to the Arctic tundra, and a University of Florida study shows that their impact could extend far beyond the areas blackened by flames, reports ScienceDaily.

316 STRAIGHT MONTHS WARMER THAN 20TH CENTURY AVERAGE

June 2011 was the 316th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below-average temperature was February 1985.

Full report at NOAA/NCDC.

That's 316 in the eye for the head-in-the-sand-junk-science-it-ain't-happening brigade. And still counting...

OCEANS SET TO RISE MANY METRES

An analysis of records left by the Last Interglacial led by the University of Arizona has found that most of the 8-metre rise in sea-levels was due to the melting of ice-sheets, not thermal expansion, and that average ocean temperatures then were only 0.7 degrees Celsius above what they are now.

'This means that even small amounts of warming may have committed us to more ice sheet melting than we previously thought. The temperature during that time of high sea levels wasn't that much warmer than it is today,' said Nicholas McKay, a doctoral student at the UA's department of geosciences and the paper's lead author.

McKay pointed out that even if ocean levels rose to similar heights as during the Last Interglacial, they would do so at a rate of up to a metre per century.

'Even though the oceans are absorbing a good deal of the total global warming, the atmosphere is warming faster than the oceans. Moreover, ocean warming is lagging behind the warming of the atmosphere. The melting of large polar ice sheets lags even farther behind. As a result, even if we stopped greenhouse gas emissions right now, the Earth would keep warming, the oceans would keep warming, the ice sheets would keep shrinking, and sea levels would keep rising for a long time.'

Jonathan Overpeck, co-director of the UA's Institute of the Environment and a professor with joint appointments in the department of geosciences and atmospheric sciences, said: 'This study marks the strongest case yet made that humans--by warming the atmosphere and oceans--are pushing the Earth's climate toward the threshold where we will likely be committed to four to six or even more metres of sea level rise in coming centuries.'

Overpeck, who is McKay's doctoral advisor and a co-author of the study, said: 'Unless we dramatically curb global warming, we are in for centuries of sea level rise at a rate of up to three feet per century, with the bulk of the water coming from the melting of the great polar ice sheets--both the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.'

Full story at ScienceDaily.

DRAMATIC CLIMATE SWINGS LIKELY AS WORLD WARMS

Using research into the ancients behaviour of El Niño, scientists at Oxford and Leeds Universities predict that the dramatic climate swings behind both last year's Pakistan flooding and this year's Queensland floods in Australia are likely to continue as the world gets warmer.

They have discovered that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the sloshing of the warmest waters on the planet from the West Pacific towards the East Pacific every 2-7 years, continued during Earth's last great warm period, the Pliocene

The Pliocene (which lasted from 5 to 3 million years ago) had carbon dioxide levels similar to the present day, with global mean temperatures about 2-3ºC higher, so it is a useful test-ground for climate research. Ancient temperatures are derived from analysis of the chemical composition of the shells of small organisms, known as foraminifera, in ocean-floor sediments.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

GREEN-ENERGY INVESTMENT UP $211 BILLION IN 2010

World-wide spending in 2010 on renewable energy was up 32% on 2009, with wind-farms in China and small-scale solar panels on rooftops in Europe largely responsible for the increase, according to the latest annual report on renewable energy investment trends issued by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

Last year, investors pumped a record $211 billion into renewables, 32% more than the $160 billion invested in 2009, and a 540% rise since 2004.

For the first time, developing economies overtook developed ones in 'financial new investment'--i.e., spending on utility-scale renewable energy projects and provision of equity capital for renewable energy companies. $72 billion was invested in developing countries versus $70 billion in developed economies. That is huge contrast with 2004, when financial new investments in developing countries were about one quarter of those in developed countries.

Full story on ScienceDaily.

2010 ONE OF TWO WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD

Globally, 2010 was one of the two warmest years on record, according to the 2010 State of the Climate report, which NOAA has just released. The peer-reviewed report, issued in coordination with the American Meteorological Society, was compiled by 368 scientists from 45 countries. It provides a detailed, yearly update on global climate indicators, notable climate events and other climate information from every continent.

'We're continuing to closely track these indicators because it is quite clear that the climate of the past cannot be assumed to represent the climate of the future. These indicators are vital for understanding and making reliable projections of future climate,' said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Full report on ScienceDaily.

WORLD'S OCEANS IN 'SHOCKING' DECLINE

The oceans are in a worse state than previously suspected, according to an expert panel of scientists. In a new report they warn that ocean life is 'at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history'.

Full story on BBC News, and also on Reuters.

More in the New Zealand Herald.

FOOD-PRODUCTION RACING TO BEAT CLIMATE-CHANGE

Across the globe, rising temperatures and more intense droughts, floods and storms are forcing a rethink in how to grow food, from breeding hardier crop varieties and changing planting times to complete genetic overhauls of plants, in a desperate bid to beat the effects of what we have done to the planet and sustain enough food-production for a growing population.

Full story on NewsDaily.

FASTEST C02 RELEASE AND HOT SUMMERS

The rate of release of carbon into the atmosphere today is nearly 10 times as fast as during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 55.9 million years ago, the best analog we have for current global warming, according to an international team of geologists. Rate matters, and this current rapid change may not allow sufficient time for the biological environment to adjust. Full story at ScienceDaily. Second story on the same subject also at ScienceDaily.

The tropics and much of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience an irreversible rise in summer temperatures within the next 20 to 60 years if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, according to a new climate study by Stanford University scientists. The Stanford team concluded that many tropical regions in Africa, Asia and South America could see 'the permanent emergence of unprecedented summer heat' in the next two decades. Middle latitudes of Europe, China and North America--including the United States--are likely to undergo extreme summer temperature shifts within 60 years, the researchers found. Full story at ScienceDaily.

WEIRD WEATHER IS THE NEW NORMAL

The extremes of weather in the United States are signs of a new normal, says a group of scientists and government planners.

'It's a new normal and I really do think that global-weirding is the best way to describe what we're seeing,' says climate-scientist Katharine Hayhoe of Texas Tech University.

Full story at
NewsDaily.

REMOVAL OF C02 FROM AIR NOT VIABLE

Technologies for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are unlikely to offer an economically feasible way to slow human-driven climate change for several decades, according to a new report. The American Physical Society has released a new assessment -- Direct Air Capture (DAC) of CO2 with Chemicals -- to better inform the scientific community on the technical aspects of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Robert Socolow, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Princeton University, who served as a co-chair of the DAC study, said, "We humans should not kid ourselves that we can pour all the carbon dioxide we wish into the atmosphere right now and pull it out later at little cost."

Full report on ScienceDaily.

ALGAE STARING DOWN THE CO2 BARREL

New research shows that coccoliths, an important part of the marine environment, dissolve when seawater acidifies, which means that acidification of the world's oceans could have major consequences for the marine and global environments. Experiments show that coccoliths fall apart at the pH levels expected in 2100. Full story at ScienceDaily.

ARCTIC MELTING AND RAISING SEA FASTER
A much reduced covering of snow, shorter winter season and thawing tundra: the effects of climate change in the Arctic are already here, and are taking place significantly faster than previously thought--the conclusions of new research report on the Arctic, presented in Copenhagen this week. 'The changes are dramatic, not coincidental; the trends are unequivocal and deviate from the norm.' See ScienceDaily.

On top of that, a new study is projected a rise of up to 1.6 meters in global sea-levels by 2100, due to accelerating climate-change in the Arctic and the melting of Greenland's icecap.

CLIMATE-CHANGE WORSE THAN WORST PREDICTIONS

The founder of New Zealand's Climate Change Research Institute, Professor Martin Manning, who also worked on the IPCC's fifth report, says the way the climate is changing is beyond their worst-case scenarios.

Click here for the full article.

Professor Manning says we need a 75% cut in carbon emissions. The technology is there to achieve that, but not the political will.

ARCTIC SEA-ICE STILL DWINDLING

Although the final data is not in, it seems that the maximum winter extent of sea-ice in the Arctic is tied with 2006 as the lowest ever measured by satellites. That also means that the last seven years have seen the seven lowest measurements since records began in 1979. Full report on ScienceDaily.

AMAZON FORESTS NOT IN GOOD HEALTH

A new NASA-funded study has revealed widespread reductions in the greenness of the forests in the vast Amazon basin in South America caused by the record-breaking drought of 2010.

'The greenness levels of Amazonian vegetation--a measure of its health--decreased dramatically over an area more than three and one-half times the size of Texas and did not recover to normal levels, even after the drought ended in late October 2010,' said Liang Xu, the study's lead author from Boston University.

Full report on ScienceDaily.

RUSSIAN BOREAL FOREST CHANGING RAPIDLY

A rapid, large-scale change in the type of trees is accelerating in Russia's boreal forest, which spans its cold northern regions, and is the largest continuous expanse of forest in the world. The change is the result of globally and regionally warming climate. That in turn is creating an even warmer climate in the region, according to a new study reported in
ScienceDaily

CO2 RAPIDLY AFFECTS ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE

New research reported in ScienceDaily work shows that carbon-dioxide rapidly affects the structure of the atmosphere, causing quick changes precipitation, as well as many other aspects of Earth's climate, well before the greenhouse gas noticeably affects temperature.

‘The direct effects of carbon-dioxide on precipitation take place quickly,’ said a lead researcher. ‘If we could cut carbon-dioxide concentrations now, we would see precipitation increase within the year, but it would take many decades for the climate to cool.’

HYDROGEN FUEL-CELL VEHICLES NOW CLOSER

ScienceDaily outlines a paper published in
Science magazine that reveals a breakthrough in using ammonia borane to store hydrogen that will make it a far more attractive fuel for vehiclesby researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory describes a simple scheme that regenerates ammonia borane from a hydrogen-depleted 'spent fuel' form (called polyborazylene) back into a usable fuel via reactions in a single container. That 'one pot' method represents a significant step toward the practical use of hydrogen in vehicles by potentially reducing the expense and complexity of the recycling stage. Regeneration takes place in a sealed pressure-vessel in off-vehicle sites using hydrazine and liquid ammonia at 40 degrees Celsius. The researchers envision vehicles with interchangeable hydrogen storage tanks containing ammonia borane that are used then sent back to a factory for recharging.

ARCTIC OZONE-LEVEL PLUMMETS

Unusually low temperatures in the Arctic's ozone layer have initiated a massive depletion of ozone there recently, and the Arctic seems to be heading for a record loss. At the relevant altitudes about half the ozone that above the Arctic has been destroyed in recent weeks, which may also affect regions further south. Scientists expect further depletion, because the conditions that caused the unusally rapid depletion are continuing. Full report on ScienceDaily.

The predicted drop in the temperature of the stratosphere as the troposphere warms due to climate-change was obviously right on the button.

MELTING ICE-SHEETS DOMINATE RISING SEA

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating rate, according to a new NASA-funded satellite study, the longest study of changes in polar ice sheet mass. It suggests that they are overtaking the loss from mountain glaciers and ice-caps to become the dominant contributor to global sea-level rise, much sooner than model forecasts have predicted.

In 2006, a year in which comparable results for the loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps are available from a separate study, the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets lost a total average of 475 gigatonnes a year, enough to raise global sea-level an average of 1.3 millimeters a year

The pace at which the polar ice sheets are losing mass was found to be accelerating rapidly. Each year over the course of the study, the two ice-sheets lost a combined average of 36.3 gigatonnes more than they had the year before. In comparison, the 2006 study of mountain glaciers and ice caps estimated their loss at 402 gigatonnes a year on average, with an acceleration rate a third that of the ice-sheets.

'That ice-sheets will dominate future sea-level rise is not surprising -- they hold a lot more ice than mountain glaciers,' said lead author Eric Rignot, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and the University of California, Irvine. 'What is surprising is this increased contribution by the ice-sheets is already happening. If present trends continue, sea-level is likely to be significantly higher than levels projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007.'

The authors conclude that if the rate at which the ice-sheets are now melting continues, the world's oceans would be 15 centimetres higher by 2050. When that is added to the predicted contribution of 8cms from glacial ice caps and 9cms from thermal-expansion, the total could reach 32cms.

Full report in ScienceDaily.

EXTREME WEATHER LINKED TO CLIMATE-CHANGE

A report in ScienceDaily links the warming of the planet with the extreme winter weather that has hit the United States in the last two years.

What goes round comes round: the United States is responsible for a huge amount of the total global carbon-emissions, and more per head than any other nation.

WARMER EARTH EVEN WITH ZERO EMISSIONS

New research by the University of Washington (UW), reported on ScienceDaily, shows that the world is committed to a warmer climate because of emissions that have occurred up to now, regardless of what we do to mitigate the effects.

There would continue to be warming even if the most stringent policy proposals were adopted, because there still would be some emission of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. The new research shows that even if all emissions were stopped now, temperatures would remain higher than levels before the Industrial Revolution in the nineteenth century because the greenhouse gases already emitted will probably persist in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

In fact, temperatures may continue to escalate even if all cars, heating and cooling systems and other sources of greenhouse gases were suddenly eliminated, said Kyle Armour, a UW doctoral student in physics, because tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols, which tend to counteract the effect of greenhouse warming by reflecting sunlight back into space, would last only a matter of weeks once emissions stopped, but the greenhouse gases would continue.

'The aerosols would wash out quickly and then we would see an abrupt rise in temperatures over several decades,' he said.

RISING SEA THREATENS 180 US CITIES

Research led by scientists at the University of Arizona, reported in ScienceDaily, says rising sea-levels caused by climate-change could threaten an average of 9 percent of the land in 180 U.S. coastal cities by 2100. The Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts will be particularly hard-hit. Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Fla., and Virginia Beach, Va. could lose more than 10 percent. The research is the first analysis of vulnerability to sea-level rise that includes every U.S. coastal city in the lower 48 with a population of 50,000 or more. The latest scientific projections indicate that by 2100 the sea level will rise about 1 metre, or more.

AMAZONIAN DROUGHTS RING ALARM BELLS

The 2010 drought in the Amazon may have been even more devastating for its rainforests than the unusual 2005 drought, which had been billed as a 1-in-100-year event, report ScienceDaily and NewsDaily.

Analyses of rainfall across 5.3 million square kilometres of Amazonia during the 2010 dry season, recently published in Science, shows that the drought was more widespread and severe than the one in 2005. The UK-Brazilian team also calculated that the carbon impact of the 2010 drought may exceed the 5 billion tonnes of CO2 released after the 2005 event, because severe droughts kill trees (to put that in perspective the United States emitted 5.4 billion tonnes of CO2 from fossil fuel use in 2009).