CENTURIES OF CLIMATE-CHANGE INEVITABLE

This synopis was published today by Science magazine.

Climate Science

Forward into the Past

H. Jesse Smith

It has been well established that high concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ caused by anthropogenic emissions will persist for thousands of years after those emissions cease and that the consequences for climate will last even longer than that. Suggestions have been made that CO₂ could be removed from the atmosphere artificially in order to speed global climate recovery, but what can be expected from such a capture scheme? MacDougall uses a climate model of intermediate complexity, employing scenarios of CO₂removal that move from the more idealized schemes used in past studies toward more realistic ones, in order to continue refining our understanding of what would be the effects of such an undertaking. He finds that by assuming a moderate value of climate sensitivity and that CO₂ is removed from the atmosphere as fast as it was added once emissions cease, surface air temperatures like those of preindustrial times can be approached by the year 3000 CE in all but the most extreme emission scenarios. Other components of the climate system, such as mass of the polar ice sheets, and sea level, will take longer to recover, however. So, even if we dial back atmospheric CO₂concentrations by massive geoengineering, we will be living with the effects of fossil fuel burning for many hundreds of years, at the least.

Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 5480 (2013).

NINETY COMPANIES HAVE WRECKED THE PLANET

About two-thirds of the damage that is causing climate-change has been caused by only ninety companies.

They should be taken to the Hague and tried for crimes against humanity. We tried the Nazis, found them guilty (a no-brainer) and hanged them. But they wiped out only 30 million people and hardly made a dent in the planet. Those companies will wipe out far more and have wrecked the planet.

BIG OIL ATTACKING ELECTRIC CARS

A happy owner of an electric car dug behind the byline of a fierce critic, and found--surprise, surprise--Big Oil's money.

MAJOR CITIES TO BE UNINHABITABLE

'Apocalypse Now: Unstoppable man-made climate change will become reality by the end of the decade and could make New York, London and Paris uninhabitable within 45 years. Research from the University of Hawaii claims that man-made global warming is now inevitable:
'The Earth is going to dangerously heat up over the next 50-years;
'The tropics will bear the brunt of the disastrous temperature increases of as much as seven-degrees-centigrade;
'Millions of people will be displaced, millions of species will be threatened with extinction;
'Major cities such as New York and London will fight to survive the rise in temperatures the likes of which humans have never experienced before.'

But the fools and liars who want to deny the incontrovertible truth that human beings have changed the global climate and are carrying on changing it as if nothing was happening, as this superb piece profoundly illustrates.

MANMADE CLIMATE-CHANGE CERTAINTY

Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real manmade threat as they are that cigarettes kill. They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy.

WORLD CLIMATE FOR JULY 2013

Global Climate Statistics from the US Government:  Highlights, July 2013

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for July 2013 was the sixth highest on record, at 0.61°C (1.10°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.3°C (57.8°F), marking the eighth warmest July on record. For the ocean, the July global sea surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the fifth warmest July on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–July period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.8°C (56.9°F), tying with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record.

Full report here.

MORE BAD NEWS ON CLIMATE-CHANGE

Our hotter, wetter, more violent future:
'Earth’s atmosphere seems to have found a way to get back at the human race. For almost three centuries, we humans have been filling the air with carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. Now, it turns out, the climate-change these emissions have wrought is turning people against one another.
'So says a review, published today, of 60 studies on how climate change helps spark conflict throughout the world. The researchers found a surprisingly close link between climate change and civil wars, riots, invasions and even personal violence such as murder, assault and rape.'
Original paper.

Climate-change happening ten times faster than at any time in the past 65 million years:
'The planet is undergoing one of the largest changes in climate since the dinosaurs went extinct. But what might be even more troubling for humans, plants and animals is the speed of the change. Stanford climate scientists warn that the likely rate of change over the next century will be at least 10 times quicker than any climate shift in the past 65 million years.'

MORE ON GLOBAL OVERHEATING TIMEBOMBS

The release of Arctic methane could cost the world $60 trillion:
'Researchers have warned of an "economic time-bomb" in the Arctic, following a ground-breaking analysis of the likely cost of methane emissions in the region. Economic modelling shows that the methane emissions caused by shrinking sea ice from just one area of the Arctic could come with a global price tag of 60 trillion dollars -- the size of the world economy in 2012.'

When temperatures rise tropical ecosystems pump out more carbon-dioxide:
'NASA scientists and an international team of researchers have found tropical ecosystems can generate significant carbon dioxide when temperatures rise, unlike ecosystems in other parts of the world.'

Antarctic permafrost is melting fast:
'For the first time, scientists have documented an acceleration in the melt rate of permafrost, or ground ice, in a section of Antarctica where the ice had been considered stable. The melt rates are comparable with the Arctic, where accelerated melting of permafrost has become a regularly recurring phenomenon, and the change could offer a preview of melting permafrost in other parts of a warming Antarctic continent.'

GLOBAL CLIMATE ANALYSIS FOR JUNE 2013

Global Climate Analysis for June 2013:
Prepared by the US Government's National Climatic Data Centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Global Highlights
* The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th-century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
* The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th-century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10th warmest June on record.
* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

NATURAL ICEBERG A SERIOUS THREAT

720-square-kilometre iceberg breaks away in the Antarctic:
'On July 8, 2013, a huge area of the ice shelf broke away from the Pine Island glacier, the longest and fastest flowing glacier in the Antarctic, and is now floating in the Amundsen Sea in the form of a very large iceberg.'
'For the Western Antarctic ice shelf, an even faster flow of the Pine Island glacier would presumably have serious consequences. "The Western Antarctic land ice is on land which is deeper than sea level. Its "bed" tends towards the land. The danger therefore exists that these large ice masses will become unstable and will start to slide," says Angelika Humbert. If the entire West Antarctic ice shield were to flow into the Ocean, this would lead to a global rise in sea level of around 3.3 metres.'

2-DEGREE RISE IS NOT SAFE

It is false to say that a 2-degree rise in average global temperature is safe.

'The notion that we'll avoid serious damage to the world's climate if we limit the warming of the atmosphere to a 2-degree-Celsius rise in temperature is untrue, says Stanford climate scientist Chris Field.'

Full story on Stanford News.

TIMELAPSE SHOWS HUMAN CHANGES TO EARTH

The changing world--timelapse powered by Google:
'These Timelapse pictures tell the pretty and not-so-pretty story of a finite planet and how its residents are treating it — razing even as we build, destroying even as we preserve. It takes a certain amount of courage to look at the videos, but once you start, it’s impossible to look away.'

LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING IS NO ENOUGH

'So far, international climate targets have been restricted to limiting the increase in temperature. But if we are to stop the rising sea levels, ocean acidification and the loss of production from agriculture, CO2 emissions will have to fall even more sharply.'

Full story on ScienceDaily.

2001 TO 2010 SHOWS FASTER GLOBAL WARMING

The United Nations says that the first decade of this century shows an accelerated trend in global warming.

'UN climate experts say the first decade of the new millennium was an unprecedented era of climate extremes, with more countries than ever before seeing their temperature records broken. The World Meteorological Organization's analysis Wednesday says average land and ocean surface temperatures during 2001-2010 rose from the previous decade and were up almost a half-degree Celsius from the 1961-1990 global average.'

Full story at NewsDaily.

SEA-RISE OF UP TO 10M POSSIBLE

'Climate change could be putting the planet on a path to an era not seen for 3 million years, a New Zealand scientist has warned. Professor Tim Naish, director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre, said sea levels in 2100 could be alarmingly higher than today if carbon emissions continue at their present rate. Today, atmospheric CO2 has just reached 400 parts per million due to human emission, and the last time the planet experienced such levels was 3 million to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene era, when the climate was 3°C warmer.... both the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets had melted and sea levels were at least 10m higher.'

CLIMATE-CHANGE LIKE 4 ATOM BOMBS PER SEC

Climate-change equals four Hiroshima bombs per second:

'The planet has been building up temperatures at the rate of four Hiroshima bombs of heat every second, and it's all our fault, say climate scientists.

Hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy are just two examples of how extreme weather will intensify, Australia's Climate Action Summit has heard.'

NOAA-NCDC CLIMATE ANALYSIS MAY 2013

Global Climate Analysis for May 2013 - NOAA's Nationals Climatic Data Centre:

Highlights

* The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for May 2013 tied with 1998 and 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.66°C (1.9°F)) above the 20th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F).

* The global land surface temperature was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F), also the third warmest May on record. For the ocean, the May global sea surface temperature was 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F), tying with 2003 and 2009 as the fifth warmest May on record.

* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the March–May period was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F), tying with 2004 as the eighth warmest such period on record.

* The March–May worldwide land surface temperature was 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th century average, the 11th warmest such period on record. The global ocean surface temperature for the same period was 0.45°C (0.81°F) above the 20th century average and tied with 2001 as the seventh warmest such period on record.

* The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–May period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average of 13.1°C (55.5°F), the eighth warmest such period on record. 

CAVES POINT TO THAWING OF SIBERIA

Evidence from Siberian caves suggests that a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius could see permanently-frozen ground thaw over a large area of Siberia, threatening release of carbon from soils, and damage to natural and human environments. A thaw in Siberia's permafrost (ground frozen throughout the year) could release over 1000 giga-tonnes of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, potentially enhancing global warming.

Full story on ScienceDaily.